If the complete turnover of Westminster Glasgow seats from Labour to SNP last May is any kind of predictor then we will expect to see four new constituency SNP MSPs on May 5th / 6th. The impact this clean sweep of constituncies has on the regional vote is where the unpredictability comes in.
IN DEPTH ANALYSIS
First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon is standing in Glasgow but she is not the only high profile candidate. Humza Yousaf for the SNP also features, along with the Greens Patrick Harvie. RISE have selected Cat Boyd, who was a vibrant campaigner in the independence referendum. Anas Sarwar, previously an MP and deputy leader of Scottish Labour is seeking a return to parliamentary life.
CURRENT CONSTITUENCY MSPs
Glasgow Anniesland, Bill Kidd SNP
Glasgow Cathcart, James Dornan SNP
Glasgow Kelvin, Sandra White SNP
Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn, Patricia Ferguson LAB
Glasgow Pollok, Johann Lamont LAB
Glasgow Provan, Paul Martin LAB
Glasgow Shettleston, John Mason SNP
Glasgow Southside, Nicola Sturgeon SNP
Rutherglen, James Kelly LAB
CONSTITUENCIES TO WATCH
Given that the SNP are likely to dominate the constituency vote it's unlikely that there will be any surprises in the 5 Glasgow seats they hold currently.
That said, Glasgow Kelvin, where Patrick Harvie is hoping to break through as a constituency MSP is worth keeping an eye on. How will his candidacy impact the SNP vote? And will Sandra White's battleskills honed fighting George Galloway for the comparable seat in Westminster in 1992 and 1997 help her at all?
CURRENT REGIONAL LIST SEAT ALLOCATION
REGIONAL LIST WATCH
On the Regional List, Ruth Davidson's move to Lothian means Adam Tomkins has a legacy to uphold as the new lead list candidate.
If the SNP dominate the constituency seats as they are predicted to they are very unlikely to win any of the Regional seats unless they win an exceptional number of list votes (ten times as many as the smallest party in fact). What will be interesting is whether the Greens can take more than one seat, and if the Liberal Democrats can stage a come-back.
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